Home / Case Studies / Bio-marker driven patient pool sizing and forecasting
Bio-marker driven patient pool sizing and forecasting
Objective
Deep understanding of the market and segmentation of patient population to understand drivers for revenue growth
Approach
Segment the patients based on histology and mutation types. Apply assumptions for adoption for each segment type allowing for a more rigorous forecast
Validating biomarker testing rate assumptions with the use of chart audit data to incorporate real world insights into the model thus providing a more accurate evolution of patients over time
Outcome
Drilled down the forecast into meaningful segments, which enabled us to answer questions related to the product strategy and messaging
Forecast sensitivity increased due to the patients’ segments being modelled separately
Analyzing the evolution of biomarker testing rates with the launch of new products helped us understand long term evolution of patient opportunities and forecast product adoption
Client Benefits
Including the impact of testing rate evolution on the size of addressable pool helped them to come up with a proper valuation of the asset
Helped identify different patient segments which added flexibility and rigor to the forecast
The differential patient segments allowed for cross functional collaboration enabling pressure testing of forecast assumptions
