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Patient journey analysis and forecast validation
Objective
Define patient opportunity and journey to validate existing Oncology Forecast.
Approach
Use multiple sources and investigate thoroughly to triangulate and validate assumptions
Study and analyze secondary literature search results, RWE, registry data and research papers to understand the flow and triangulate the findings
Account for patients’ journey and progression on lines of therapy help to size the opportunity and also highlight key drivers
Evaluate analyst reports, investor presentations, other syndicated reports to understand the business rules for sizing the later lines of treatment opportunities
Outcome
Sources of potential addressable patients were identified using extensive research based on our expertise in oncology
Built patient progression estimates using OS and PFS curves of various available therapies thus sizing the market correctly for greater impact
Derived insights to help evaluate impact of new product launches especially with breakthrough therapies
Used publicly available information to size 2L patients from 1L based on progression rate prior to the launch of novel therapies
Client Benefits
To have efficient and dynamic forecast models that account for all available patient opportunities
Have a validated addressable pool with suggestions on how to increase this pool
Increased precision in patient sizing by using OS-PFS progression curves. This helped create opportunities with later lines of therapy and increased sensitivity to impacts of competition
